In every election, some prominent castes alter poll results in Andhra Pradesh. TDP was badly defeated in the 2019 elections as it lost significant support from some crucial caste groups, who were earlier known as its hardcore supporters.
According to CSDS-Lokniti data, in 2014, 64 percent of the Reddys voted for the YSRCP, but in 2019, it increased to 86 percent. In 2014, YSRCP received 57 percent of SC votes to 76 percent in 2019, and in 2014, 37 percent of BC votes increased to 39 percent in 2019.
Since the inception of TDP, BC has been the backbone of the party. Every time a section of BCs goes away from the party, TDP was seen losing in polls. This was reflected in the 1989, 2004, 2009 and 2019 elections.
In 2014, TDP got 54 percent of the BC votes, but in 2019, it got only 46 percent. Besides a loss of 8 per cent votes in BCs, the TDP also lost support from the Kamma community, by 12 per cent votes compared to 2014, giving the party a crushing defeat.
In 2019, 7 percent of Reddys supported TDP. Ever since the inception of TDP, the Reddy community has never had such low support. 26 percent of the total votes received by the Jana Sena, which contested the 2019 elections for the first time.
Now YSRCP is spreading the notion that if TDP-Janasena-BJP contest together, some BC castes will not vote for this alliance. But, it should be noted here that in 2014 when the Jana Sena supported the TDP, the BC caste votes went to the TDP at 54 percent.
Like the 2019 elections, the Reddy community is now not ready to side with the YCP unilaterally. They are angry with YSRC for bringing in volunteers and undermining their leadership locally.
In the current situation, if we look at the percentage of votes by social groups, it is clear that the percentage of votes received by YCP in 2019 in each social group is likely to decrease significantly. As the social groups that supported the YSRCP in 2019 are drifting away, groups alienated from the TDP, especially BCs and farmers, are coming back closer, the electoral scenario may transform completely, to the advantage of TDP and its allies.
