The Hyderabad-based political research organisation People’s Pulse Exit Polls predicted that there is a clear edge on the National Conference- Indian National Congress alliance in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly election.
The 2004 Jammu & Kashmir Assembly election comes at a time when the region has undergone a ground shaking alteration of its identity, after a gap of 10 years, it said that no party is strong enough to reach the halfway mark of 46 seats.
However, it says that the JKNC-INC alliance appears to have an edge, with the potential to secure between 46 and 50 seats. Of these, the JKNC is expected to contribute between 33 and 35 seats, while the INC may secure 13 to 15 seats.
On the other hand, the Exit Polls predicted the BJP, benefiting from its strong performance in Jammu, and aided by a lacklustre campaigning by INC, is projected to stand anywhere between 23 to 27 seats-less than what they would have liked to get after investing so much in J&K.
It also says that the PDP is expected to hold a significant presence, with estimates suggesting it could secure between 7 and 11 seats. The much hyped Awami Ittehad Party could win 1 seat, and smaller parties, such as the People’s Conference and Apni Party, may secure around 4 to 5 seats combined.
One of the most striking findings of the Post Poll Survey is the resurgence of the alliance between the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (JKNC). This alliance appears to have captured the electorate’s favour, as a considerable percentage of respondents expressed their support for it.
Approximately 46% of those surveyed believed that the INC-JKNC alliance would serve their interests best. In terms of vote share the Post – Poll data indicates that the alliance is poised to secure around 43% of the total votes, with the JKNC contributing about 29% and the INC garnering around 14%.
The BJP, buoyed by a consolidation of the Hindu vote in Jammu, is expected to capture around 24% of the vote share. Meanwhile, the PDP is projected to secure 16%, with smaller parties like Awami Ittehad Party, People’s Conference, and Apni Party etc. together accounting for the remaining 17%.
