With the BJP likely to fall behind the majority mark, the formation of a new Narendra Modi government will now depend on the support of two veteran kingmakers — the Telugu Desam Party chief Chandrababu Naidu and Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar.
These two leaders are partners of the BJP in the NDA. While BJP is short of over 30 seats of the absolute majority mark of 272, these two leaders are having 16 and 14 MPs respectively. Already INDIA block leaders have reportedly offered Deputy Prime Minister posts to these two leaders, if they switch sides with them.
However, their political compulsions make them continue with NDA for which they may expect a big price from the BJP. Both Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar were unhappy with the Narendra Modi government that their long standing demand of ‘special status’ to their respective states was ignored.
Now, taking the present uncertain scenario as an opportunity these two leaders are likely to insist on their demand of ‘special status’. It may be recalled that on this demand only in 2018 Chandrababu Naidu had left NDA. Though he is maintaining silence on this demand after the 2019 debacle, he has never given up this demand.
After returning to NDA also on several occasions, he mentioned that his differences with the BJP earlier was only on the issue of ‘special status’. Now Nitish Kumar also may join with him on this demand. If that happens, it would be a difficult task for Narendra Modi to address.
If these numbers do not change significantly, Naidu and Nitish could be the men who would prop up Narendra Modi in New Delhi. Naidu, who contested the Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly polls in Andhra in alliance with the BJP and the Jana Sena party, has been a kingmaker on many occasions in the past.
In 1996, when the electorate delivered a fractured mandate in the Lok Sabha polls, Naidu, as the convenor of the United Front, a coalition of parties not aligned with either the Congress or the BJP, propped up the H D Deve Gowda government with outside support from the Congress. He also helped form a government at the Centre with I K Gujaral at the helm during this period.
In 1999, Naidu contested the Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the BJP and notched up 29 seats in united Andhra Pradesh. He supported the then Atal Bihari Vajpayee government which was short of majority mark. In fact, with 29 seats, TDP was BJP’s biggest ally although it did not join the government.
In 2014 too, Naidu contested in alliance with the BJP and joined the Modi government, only to leave the alliance in 2018 ahead of Assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh. Emerging once again as the largest NDA partner of the BJP, Naidu could again be kingmaker and herald the resurgence of his party that has suffered some serious setbacks in the past few years.
