As the election notification to be issued in Andhra Pradesh in two days, one of the major poll research organisations in Telugu states, Peoples Pulse researcher EV Murali Krishna Sharma predicts that TDP and its allies have a massive edge in the polls.
According to him, TDP alliance with Jana Sena and BJP is likely to bring back 2014 combination and transfer of vote share, which itself will make a difference in about 70 assembly constituencies. Moreover, change in the perception of YS Jaganmohan Reddy politics among various sections like employees and youth makes a difference.
Above all, this image of `Rajanna Rajyam’ will be no more helpful to YS Jagan and he has to depend upon the government’s performance only. To examine the likelihood of transfer of votes, Murali Krishna Sharma examined CSDS- LokNiti data.
In 2014, when three parties were together, the TDP got 44.5 percent votes, the ally BJP got 2.18 percent votes and got a total of 46.68 percent votes, while the YSRCP got 44.12 percent votes. TDP came to power with a margin of just 2.56 percent.
In the 2019 assembly elections, TDP got 39.26 percent votes, Jana Sena got 5.15 percent votes, BJP got 0.84 percent votes, YSRCP got 49.95 percent votes and took the reins of power with 151 seats. TDP won 24 seats.
If the votes obtained by the TDP-Janasena-BJP parties, which contested separately, were combined, they would have had a chance to win 34 more seats. Similarly, there are 10 seats which were lost by 1 to 2 per cent votes and 11 seats which were lost by 3 to 5 per cent votes.
Considering the current situation in the state, there are chances of this alliance winning most of these 21 seats which were lost with a low percentage of votes.
As part of the scientific study, if we consider the current political situation along with the statistics of 2019, there is a possibility that TDP, Janasena and BJP will win more than 70 of the above mentioned 79 seats. In this way, there are good chances of this coalition easily achieving the simple majority required to form the government.
In 2019, YCP got 45.55 percent and TDP got 27.32 percent of the postal ballots. At present government employees who are known as opinion makers are unhappy with YCP. They are unable to digest the cancellation of CPS, non-payment of salaries on time and non-receipt of benefits.
These ‘opinion makers’ are likely to make a significant influence on the out-come of the present polls. In addition to them, the unemployed youth are angry with the Jagan government for not announcing the job calendar and not giving jobs as stated in the YSRCP election manifesto.
