The BJP is expected to win a third consecutive term – but fall well short of its ‘abki baar, 400 paar‘ target – in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, according to NDTV’s poll of opinion polls. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to win 372 of the 543 contested seats, and the Congress-led INDIA could get 122, with the remaining 49 going to parties not allied with either side.

The predicted final result may not be a surprise, given the NDA – its charge led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a third consecutive time – is already seen by many as the clear winner, but the numbers suggest a narrowing of the gap between the ruling party and the opposition since 2019.

The 365 seats the NDA is expected to win this year represents a 3.4 per cent increase over its 2019 result; it won 353 seats (the BJP got 303) and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance) got 90. The NDA’s 2019 score was five per cent up from the 336 it won in the 2014 election.

The BJP’s primary rival – the UPA in 2014 and 2019 and INDIA in 2024 – went from 60 in 2014 to 90 in 2019, an increase of 50 per cent. In this election INDIA’s expected return of 122 is a 35 per cent jump. 

The data from the poll of opinion polls is drawn from nine polls, including three conducted by ABP-C Voter on December 25, March 12, and April 16. In these three, the NDA’s expected score jumps from 295-335 to 366 and settles at 373, while INDIA goes from 163 down to 156 and then 155.

The biggest predicted returns for the BJP-led alliance comes from Times-ETG, which gives it between 358 and 398 seats, and gives INDIA 110-130. The non-aligned parties are given 64-68 seats here.

India TV-CNX, Zee News-Matrize, and Times-Matrize all give the NDA over 350 seats each, and give INDIA less than 100 seats. The exception is Times Matrize, which gives the bloc 104 seats.

The closest prediction is India Today-C Voter; a sample of nearly 36,000 voters polled on February 8 indicates a return of 335 for the NDA, 166 for the INDIA, and 42 for other opposition parties.

The NDA is predicted to ride to victory on the back of clean sweeps in eight states and union territories, including national capital Delhi, Mr Modi’s home state of Gujarat, and Arunachal Pradesh in the northeast, where the BJP has flexed its nationalist muscles in the wake of Chinese aggression.

The NDA is also tipped to sweep Rajasthan – building on last year’s Assembly election win – Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu.